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National Fuel provides winter heating forecast — modest increase on the heels of record warmth, totaling $8.40 a month

November 28, 2012
Westfield Republican / Mayville Sentinel News

WILLIAMSVILLE, N.Y. - While those who forecast the weather are still hard at work determining what the winter will hold for Western New York, officials at National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation have good news for their customers based on initial analysis. Given last year's record warmth, customers may experience a slight increase from a year ago, though costs are still near the lowest in more than a decade.

The current forecasted seasonal bill for an average residential customer for the winter of November 2012 through March 2013 is $657, compared to last year's warmest winter on record of $615. Based on an assumption of normal winter weather, National fuel customers could experience an overall seasonal increase of $42, or $8.40 per month. Had last year's Western New York winter been "normal," the average residential bill would have been $705, which is higher than what is forecasted for this coming winter season.

"Before we talk about what's ahead, it's important to look at the winter behind to give proper perspective," Karen L. Merkel, spokesperson for National Fuel, said. "Last winter was 23 percent warmer than normal. In fact it was the warmest winter on record, ever. The average bill last winter for the season was $615, a 17.8 percent decrease from the previous winter of 2010-11."

When comparing the outlook for the winter of 2012-13 to historical normal average winter heating bills, the total cost this year is expected to be down from 10 to 30 percent when the three, five- and 10-year historic averages are looked at.

If customers are wondering why natural gas heating prices are significantly lower, National Fuel's cost for natural gas is the lowest it has been in more than 10 years, and this is largely attributable to the abundant supply of domestic natural gas, namely the Marcellus Shale play.

The increase in Marcellus Shale gas is positively impacting New York customers by keeping natural gas costs low despite the fact that there is no production here. Shale gas provides the largest source growth in the U.S. natural gas supply, according to the Energy Information Administration.

National Fuel's supply diversification is key to reliability and its ability to purchase natural gas at the lowest possible cost while ensuring security of supply. National Fuel has a variety of natural gas supply sources and uses a combination of proven methods that allows tremendous flexibility to adjust purchases - including forward pricing, monthly pricing and the use of underground storage.

"All of the Northeast market demand for natural gas is currently being met by Northeast production," Merkel said. "Hydraulically fractured shale gas is supplying Western New York with its natural gas and is significantly contributing to the lower heating bills that our customers are experiencing."

Given what is a very stable price environment for the winter heating season, National Fuel officials realize there will be customers who will have difficulty paying their monthly heating bills. Customers who may need help managing their bills should consider joining the budget plan where predictable monthly gas payments can make budgeting easier. The plan divides an estimated annual bill by 12, or by the number of months the budget plan will be in effect. If interested, call 1-800-365-3234.

The Neighbor For Neighbor Heat Fund will remain open year round in an effort to make heating grants more accessible for the elderly and the disabled. The Home Energy Assistance Program will open next month on Monday, Nov. 19 and the maximum natural gas grant will be $450. Customers are encouraged to apply as soon as the program opens by mail, telephone, online or in person. For additional information, call 1-877-443-2743 or visit the website at

"Thanks to a collaborative partnership with Erie County and New York state, more than 87,500 National Fuel customers received a greater proportionate share of HEAP grants than other utilities' customers across the state," Merkel said. "This translates to very real financial relief for Western New York-area customers needing assistance paying their heating bills."

National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation is the utility segment of National Fuel Gas Company, a diversified energy holding company that is engaged in a number of natural gas-related activities. National Fuel provides natural gas service to approximately 500,000 customers throughout 11 counties in Western New York. Additional information about National Fuel and its customer services is available at or by calling 1-800-365-3234.



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